The Fourth Turning

Imagine standing in America during the spring of 1860, when most politicians still believed that compromise could resolve the growing tensions over slavery. Within a year, the nation would be tearing itself apart in the bloodiest conflict in its history. Or picture yourself in October 1929, when prosperity seemed eternal and the stock market reached dizzying heights. Within days, everything would collapse, ushering in a decade of unprecedented hardship that would fundamentally reshape American society.

These weren't random catastrophes that struck without warning. They were part of a larger historical rhythm that has governed American civilization for centuries, a cyclical pattern as predictable as the changing seasons. Every eighty to one hundred years, roughly the span of a long human life, American society faces a moment of crisis so profound that it transforms everything: our institutions, our values, and our very identity as a nation. Between these great trials, we experience periods of spiritual awakening, cultural upheaval, and social fragmentation. Understanding this pattern reveals not just where we've been, but where we're heading, and suggests that America may be approaching another great turning point that will test everything we think we know about our future.

Human societies, like the natural world, move through predictable seasons of growth, decay, crisis, and renewal. This cycle, known as a saeculum, spans roughly eighty to one hundred years and consists of four distinct phases, each lasting approximately twenty years. The pattern has governed Anglo-American civilization for more than five centuries, creating a rhythm of historical change as reliable as the tides.

The cycle begins with a High, a period of strong institutions and collective purpose when society rebuilds after crisis. Think of the 1950s, with their suburban prosperity, strong families, and shared national confidence. Next comes an Awakening, when spiritual rebellion challenges the established order, exemplified by the cultural revolution of the 1960s. The third phase is an Unraveling, characterized by weak institutions and strong individualism, where society fragments as people pursue personal agendas while collective problems mount.

Finally arrives the Crisis, or Fourth Turning, when external pressures force society to choose between transformation and collapse. The Revolutionary War, Civil War, and Great Depression with World War Two all represent such moments of national testing. Each Crisis destroys an old order and gives birth to a new one, setting the stage for the next High. This pattern isn't unique to America, but reflects deeper truths about how human societies develop and change over time.

The engine driving these cycles is generational change. Every twenty years, a new generation comes of age with worldviews shaped by their formative experiences. Four generational archetypes appear in sequence: visionary Prophets, pragmatic Nomads, team-oriented Heroes, and adaptive Artists. As these generations move through life's phases, they reshape society according to their values and experiences, creating the cyclical rhythm that has defined American history since its founding.

The America that emerged from World War Two was a nation transformed by victory and united by purpose. The returning veterans didn't want to relive the ideological battles of the 1930s or the cultural experiments of the 1920s. They wanted something simpler and more substantial: good jobs, stable families, and secure communities. What they created was an era of unprecedented prosperity, social cohesion, and national confidence that lasted from 1946 to 1964.

This wasn't the America of today's culture wars or partisan gridlock. It was a nation where large institutions commanded respect, where government could undertake massive projects like the interstate highway system and the space program, and where social problems seemed manageable through collective effort. Crime rates fell, divorce rates declined, and the middle class expanded rapidly. Suburbia bloomed as millions of families pursued the American Dream of homeownership, complete with white picket fences and two-car garages.

The High's defining characteristic was its emphasis on conformity and cooperation. Organizations flourished, from labor unions to civic clubs to religious congregations. Social pressure encouraged people to fit in rather than stand out, to be team players rather than rebels. This produced a remarkably stable and productive society, but at the cost of individual expression and spiritual vitality. The very prosperity and security it created gave the rising generation the luxury of questioning their parents' values.

The American High demonstrates how each turning creates the conditions for the next. The institutional achievements of the 1950s provided the stable platform from which their children could launch their spiritual rebellion. Without the prosperity and security of the post-war era, the cultural experiments of the 1960s would have been impossible. Each generation builds on its predecessors' work while reacting against their limitations, creating the cyclical rhythm that drives American history forward through its seasonal transformations.

Since the early 1980s, America has been living through what historians recognize as an Unraveling, the autumn season of our historical cycle. This era has been marked by the triumph of individual choice over collective obligation, creating a society that excels at personal fulfillment but struggles with shared challenges. The signs are everywhere: declining voter turnout, the rise of gated communities, the replacement of civic organizations with online networks, and the fragmentation of once-shared cultural narratives into competing tribal identities.

The driving force behind this transformation has been the values revolution launched by the Baby Boom generation during the 1960s. While this revolution successfully challenged many unjust aspects of the old order, it also weakened the social bonds that held communities together. The emphasis on personal authenticity and individual rights, liberating in many ways, has made collective action increasingly difficult. Meanwhile, Generation X has responded to this institutional chaos with characteristic pragmatism, focusing on personal survival rather than public engagement.

During Unravelings, individual achievement flourishes while collective purpose withers. We celebrate personal success stories while our shared civic life deteriorates. Trust in institutions plummets, not because they're necessarily more corrupt than before, but because the social glue that once held them together has weakened. Political discourse becomes increasingly bitter and polarized, cultural debates rage over fundamental values, and social problems that seemed manageable during better times now appear intractable.

Yet Unravelings, however painful, serve a crucial purpose in the historical cycle. They clear away outdated institutions and social arrangements, creating space for new solutions to emerge. The corruption and rigidity that accumulated during the previous High gets swept away, even as the process creates significant social stress. This fragmentation isn't permanent decline but necessary preparation for the renewal that lies ahead, as society prepares for its next great test.

Throughout Anglo-American history, Fourth Turnings have followed a remarkably consistent pattern, transforming societies through a predictable sequence of catalyst, regeneracy, climax, and resolution. Each Crisis begins with a sudden event that shatters the complacent mood of the preceding Unraveling, forcing society to confront long-ignored problems with new urgency and unity. The catalyst might seem ordinary in retrospect, but it triggers a chain reaction that rapidly escalates beyond anyone's control.

The Revolutionary War began with tax protests but culminated in a war for independence and the creation of a new constitutional republic. The Civil War started with political disputes over slavery but ended with the preservation of the Union and the abolition of slavery. The Great Depression and World War Two began with economic collapse but concluded with America's emergence as a global superpower. Each Crisis destroyed an old order and gave birth to a new one, setting the stage for the next High.

What makes these sparks ignite into full Crisis is not their inherent importance, but society's readiness for fundamental change. The accumulated problems of the Unraveling suddenly demand immediate attention, and half-measures no longer suffice. Once catalyzed, society enters a phase of regeneracy, where the fragmented individualism of the Unraveling gives way to renewed collective purpose. People stop tolerating institutional dysfunction and cultural decay, demanding that leaders take decisive action.

This regeneracy builds toward a climax, a moment of maximum danger and opportunity when the society's very survival hangs in the balance. The same forces that could rebuild civilization could also tear it apart if misdirected. Previous American Crises illustrate that the outcome is not predetermined. Societies either emerge from Crisis stronger and more unified than before, or they fragment and decline, sometimes permanently. The difference depends on the choices made by leaders and citizens during these crucial years.

The signs point toward a Fourth Turning that began sometime around 2005, driven by the same generational dynamics that have shaped previous turning points. The current alignment of age groups mirrors patterns that have preceded every major crisis in American history. Today's aging Baby Boomers are entering their final phase of leadership with a determination to resolve the moral questions they have championed throughout their lives, while Generation X stands ready to provide pragmatic management during whatever crisis may emerge.

Most significantly, the Millennial generation is coming of age with a strong desire for community, effectiveness, and shared purpose. This generational constellation has appeared only once every eighty to one hundred years, and each time it has coincided with a period of national crisis and renewal. The specific trigger for such a crisis cannot be predicted, but the underlying conditions are remarkably similar to those that preceded previous transformations: rising inequality, declining institutional trust, and deepening cultural divisions.

The catalyst could emerge from any number of brewing tensions: a fiscal crisis as government debt becomes unsustainable, a terrorist attack with weapons of mass destruction, a constitutional crisis over federal authority, or a global conflict involving nuclear powers. What matters less is the specific trigger than society's readiness to respond with the unity and sacrifice that Crises demand. When the catalyst arrives, it will shatter the Unraveling's mood of anxious drift and replace it with urgent purpose.

This Fourth Turning will likely unfold over roughly two decades, reaching its climax sometime in the 2020s. By its end, America will have been transformed as thoroughly as it was by the Revolution, Civil War, or World War II. The political system, economic arrangements, social structures, and cultural values that emerge will define the next saeculum. Whether this transformation strengthens or weakens America depends largely on how well we prepare for the trials ahead and how wisely we respond when they arrive, for this Crisis will determine not just America's future, but potentially the fate of democratic civilization itself.

The central insight running through American history is that social change follows predictable cycles driven by generational replacement. Every eighty to one hundred years, as new generations with different formative experiences assume leadership roles, society undergoes fundamental transformation. These aren't random fluctuations but seasonal rhythms as natural and necessary as the cycles that govern the natural world. Understanding this pattern reveals that America's current troubles aren't signs of permanent decline but symptoms of a society preparing for its next great renewal.

The approaching Fourth Turning will demand qualities that seem in short supply today: the ability to work together across partisan divides, willingness to sacrifice personal interests for collective goals, and faith that shared action can solve common problems. Yet history suggests these qualities will emerge when circumstances require them. The same generational forces that created today's fragmentation will, under crisis conditions, produce the unity and purpose necessary for national renewal. The key is recognizing the signs, preparing for the challenges ahead, and remembering that winter, however harsh, always gives way to spring. America has navigated such passages before and can do so again, but only if its citizens understand the historical moment they're entering and rise to meet its demands with wisdom, courage, and hope.